Nebula Mafia 1 (Greater Idea) (Ended, Werewolf Victory)

[SmilyCube112]

Flor, I get what you're saying, but I shan't be changing my mind on this, ok?

[Florien]

So you're willfully making a play that benefits the scum team.

Okay, there's two options here, either you're part of the scum team or just aiding them for no reason. Either way...

/Vote smilycube112

[SmilyCube112]

Wait, wah? Hol up - That counts as aiding the scums? That actually counts?

I genuinely didn't think that would be the case. I genuinely thought it was a good idea to vote for a No Execution this early. This is legit my first Mafia game - I don't know how it all works! I swear!

[Whistle]

Same here.

[Whistle]

Wait a sec, you can vote MULTIPLE TIMES?

[NebulaChimera2211]

Wait a sec, you can vote MULTIPLE TIMES?

Yep, you can change your vote. Speaking of which...

• Cassie: 0
  
• MadameButterflyKnife: 0
  
• Whistle: 0
  
• Florien: 1 (Whistle)
  
• Kennifer: 0
  
• TenOfSwords13: 0
  
• SmileyCube112: 1 (Florien)
  
• No Execution: 1 (SmileyCube112)
  

[Whistle]

I'll stick with my vote then.

[TenOfSwords13]

i would rather have at least one night of information before having a kill, but if i were to choose someone, i would definitely be choosing the person who has accused two people of being scum so far. i might change my mind closer to this day's deadline, but i won't be locking in any votes yet.

[Florien]

I mean, it's just math and game theory, if we wait, scum get the initiative. We'd be abandoning the first-play advantage to skip the first vote. And Mafia does have first-play advantage. There's three ways this can go.

1: Execute, hit scum. Excellent, they're one down. There's probably two scum, maybe three. That's a loss of a half to a third of the team. They get one nightkill 

2: Execute, hit innocent. There's more of us. We take less damage losing one and a second to the nightkill than the scum will take if they lose one member.

3: No execution. We lose one person to the nightkill and thus, may lose three town before one Mafia drops. That's enough to erase the advantage that we'd have even if we hit an innocent this round.

[MadameButterflyKnife]

while i do feel bad about rando voting, it does make sense. it seems counterintuitive at first, but it's like the Monty Hall problem. it won't really work if we end up voting off people and we end up with a tie, so i'm just gonna flip a coin to see which of the two people voted for i'll choose


...and the coin flip said Smiley. sorry dude.

/vote Smiley

[SmilyCube112]

So y'all are gonna make it so my lack of experience gets me booted from a game early again? Really?

*sigh*, this happens to me way too often, doesn't it?

[Florien]

Look, trying guilt trip people into not executing, while ostensibly a "good" strategy, is kind of petty. This isn't a specific targeting. There'll be more mafia games, and someone was going to die first. The point is, objectively, the strategy of executing someone before anything happens is a good strategy compared to not executing, and I see two options here.

1. You either are working with the scum team and deliberately tried to get a non-execution to happen, either through some knowledge of mafia undisclosed or because you didn't want to risk losing a team member and made the choice.

or

2. You tried to push back on an argument that it's numerically better to execute first day with "I don't want to do what numbers say I should do" for no reason other than you wanted to make a suboptimal play, then tried to back out when I pointed out it's actively helping the scumteam without trying to come up with someone to vote for who's not you, however tenuous the logic. (Hell, my logic was possibly Knife and/or Whistle and/or Cassie, because the first two threw out good power roles, which implies throwing them out for the well-liked nightkill privileges and Cassie because giving up nightkill privilege seems like an unlikely choice under any circumstance, worries of unbalanced game or not. The worst case there is that everything just gets rerolled again, which changes nothing fundamentally. My logic is based entirely on one fragment of information.)

If the first option is true, which it might be, it's best to proceed with the execution. If the second option is true, which it also might be, I don't think it's worth risking the first option being true in the first place. 

So basically, I'd like a roleclaim from Knife, from Whistle, from Cassie, and from Smily. I will also roleclaim once I've received two claims. If someone roleclaims a power role, we'll see what we can do to confirm that.

[SmilyCube112]

Alright, you really wanna know my role? Here ya go:

Bulletproof Townie

Happy now?

[MadameButterflyKnife]

okay it is like. 3 am and i should be asleep

anyways, i'm a Town Lover. for some reason i don't have any other lovers so the whole "Lover" part is useless. i guess it's just a weird fluke of the randomizer having so many avaliable roles and Nebula just. not taking into account that the Lover role is only useful when there's more than one of them

man i wish i knew that sooner lmao, i wouldn't have chosen this role to be not discarded if i did

[Florien]

A little, though that role can't really be tested, and you could explain away the lack of nightkills on you with your bulletproof status. On the other hand, bulletproof doesn't narrow down what we have on the field if true. I'd like to hear at least one other person on my list's roleclaim before making any further decisions about what to do, but bulletproof isn't a great roleclaim. Though I might be persuaded to switch my vote to Knife, Whistle, or Cassie if I should run into something that lines up wrong enough with what their roleclaims end up being.

So you've not worsened your case with that claim at least.

Also knife's claim is automatically suspicious because I discarded the lover role and we know that most scum teams also have a lover role. But then again, it's a pretty common role, there's three in the pile. I'd like to hear the reasoning behind the doctor discard.

Anyway, I said with two roleclaims I'd do the same, so I'm roleclaiming Town Hero.

[MadameButterflyKnife]

i discarded the doctor role because a) i'd prefer having the lover role because it would mean that it would have someone to back me up (spoiler: it did shit to back me up) and also b)....im gonna be honest i submitted the discard also at 3 am and whilst still reeling from an unholy mixture of hot cheetos and monster. which i know you know exists because i made it my discord pfp so i could curse others

im not good at this game lmao

[MadameButterflyKnife]

oh dumb question what does a Hero do, anyway

i didnt see it on the role list in the beginning

[Florien]

I assume it's the wild card role or something. Anyway, it means that if I'm targeted by someone made king by the kingmaker for execution, the king gets executed and not me. I think.

[Florien]

Oh, which, that existing means we know for a fact that no other roles not on the list can appear, because there's only one wild card role, and I have it.

I mean assuming that's what the wild card means. If it isn't, then I don't know where this role came from, because I don't think it's on the list.

[MadameButterflyKnife]

i mean, maybe the role glossary was just outdated

[MadameButterflyKnife]

yeah, i think the role glossary (which was what i was using as a ref) might have just been outdated compared to the actual role list

[Florien]

So the actual role list was posted on the first page, I've been going off of that. It has no town hero still, I'm fairly sure.

[NebulaChimera2211]

Deadline's in a week and a bit.

To clarify: Town Hero was listed in the initial role list, I checked. It's near the end of the Town roles.

Votes:

• Cassie: 0
  
• MadameButterflyKnife: 0
  
• Whistle: 0
  
• Florien: 1 (Whistle)
  
• Kennifer: 0
  
• TenOfSwords13: 0
  
• SmileyCube112: 2 (Florien, MadameButterflyKnife)
  
• No Execution: 1 (SmileyCube112)
  

[Florien]

Okay, never mind then.

[Cassie]

ok was out of it, read up slightly and noticed some roleclaims

can i have a recap on what's been happening since i last posted?