07-09-2021, 03:16:09 AM
Hitomi grabs a crumpled piece of paper from a back pocket and scribbles on it. "Right. I spent last night working on this..." She tosses the paper onto a nearby table for the others to peruse at their leisure.
"Take from it what you will."
The Situation
Wendy- Alive
Cass- Alive
Frankie- Alive
Tiger- Alive
MatPat- Alive
Ivi- Alive Assassin
Hitomi- Alive
Socrates- Alive
Lemmings- Murderer
Cirno- Survivor
Lance Vance- Twin
Kazuichi- Twin
Red- Vigilante
Henka- Medic
Tonya- Psychic
Scenario: 3 killers remain of 7 players
1 vote for any inno leads to a quickhammer and game over. Town should only vote if they are *very* sure they've found scum -- voting otherwise should be treated as a scumclaim.
Self-voting is a possible but risky strategy for both fool (trying to get hammered) and town (trying to bait scum).
A survivor, if present, may out themself and ask scum to pick an inno to end game immediately. There is no counter for this except somehow convincing the scum to reject the alliance. Inversely, scum knowing or correctly suspecting the presence of a survivor may offer the alliance; again only counter is to convince survivor to reject (slightly more plausible but would require a guarantee of protection) or hope scum miscalculated and no survivor actually exists.
Scenario 3/8 is also vulnerable to survivor+scum teamups, though will take two nights - force a tie tonight, scum NK's someone, we're in Scenario A with survivor already known to scum, game over. Additional time makes the strategy vulnerable to disruption by town (but this scenario already requires duplicate roles, making it quite likely) or betrayal by scum. 2/7 and 2/8 are stable enough for normal investigation, unless a *third* survivor exists and is correctly known to any. (While duplicate roles may exist, scenarios 4/8 and 4/7 are not worth considering, as the scum will have already won.)
Notes on Fool: A fool may replace a survivor in any above scenario and offer their own elimination. If the scum accepts this offer, fool is in a kingmaker position - no-haunting will allow the scum to go on to immediate victory, while haunting the scum will hand their now-outed asses to town on a silver platter. Because of this, scum may choose to reject the offer, leaving fool high and dry. If fool offers and is rejected, they have no options left but to continue making the offer each day, as town will definitely not eliminate them now. However, if, improbably, there is a fool and *two* (known or correctly deduced) still-living survivors, the scum may accept the fool's offer without fear of betrayal, though they also don't really need to.
The prospects are very bad for town. But not impossible. Hold your votes until you have a confirmed target.
Cass- Alive
Frankie- Alive
Tiger- Alive
MatPat- Alive
Ivi- Alive Assassin
Hitomi- Alive
Socrates- Alive
Lemmings- Murderer
Cirno- Survivor
Lance Vance- Twin
Kazuichi- Twin
Red- Vigilante
Henka- Medic
Tonya- Psychic
Scenario: 3 killers remain of 7 players
1 vote for any inno leads to a quickhammer and game over. Town should only vote if they are *very* sure they've found scum -- voting otherwise should be treated as a scumclaim.
Self-voting is a possible but risky strategy for both fool (trying to get hammered) and town (trying to bait scum).
A survivor, if present, may out themself and ask scum to pick an inno to end game immediately. There is no counter for this except somehow convincing the scum to reject the alliance. Inversely, scum knowing or correctly suspecting the presence of a survivor may offer the alliance; again only counter is to convince survivor to reject (slightly more plausible but would require a guarantee of protection) or hope scum miscalculated and no survivor actually exists.
Scenario 3/8 is also vulnerable to survivor+scum teamups, though will take two nights - force a tie tonight, scum NK's someone, we're in Scenario A with survivor already known to scum, game over. Additional time makes the strategy vulnerable to disruption by town (but this scenario already requires duplicate roles, making it quite likely) or betrayal by scum. 2/7 and 2/8 are stable enough for normal investigation, unless a *third* survivor exists and is correctly known to any. (While duplicate roles may exist, scenarios 4/8 and 4/7 are not worth considering, as the scum will have already won.)
Notes on Fool: A fool may replace a survivor in any above scenario and offer their own elimination. If the scum accepts this offer, fool is in a kingmaker position - no-haunting will allow the scum to go on to immediate victory, while haunting the scum will hand their now-outed asses to town on a silver platter. Because of this, scum may choose to reject the offer, leaving fool high and dry. If fool offers and is rejected, they have no options left but to continue making the offer each day, as town will definitely not eliminate them now. However, if, improbably, there is a fool and *two* (known or correctly deduced) still-living survivors, the scum may accept the fool's offer without fear of betrayal, though they also don't really need to.
The prospects are very bad for town. But not impossible. Hold your votes until you have a confirmed target.
"Take from it what you will."
nya