07-23-2022, 10:52:14 AM
I always draw people's roles out so I can understand how everything will interact. Anyway the sheer fact we've got a bus driver who can presumably swap themselves with other people gives us a massive advantage, assuming the claim is true. Everything becomes chaos with a driver around, because the scum will never know who's actually who.
Anyway we now better understand how the situations will interact.
In fact, ideally everyone will roleclaim right now and we can easily win right away, because I think it'll be pretty obvious who's lying. You can trust me I'm very trustworthy and you should do what I say.
Oh and once lav tells us how their role works we need to figure out how to optimize that.
Either way, not executing puts us in an objectively worse situation than executing. The probabilities add up very clearly.
Either we take someone out, or we miss. In which case we're 3/5 or 2/6 the next day. Or we do nothing and we're 3/6 next day and likely have no new information, which translates to 3/5 the next night assuming this holds. No one even has the barest hint of an investigatory role, so we'll have no information by my guess. There's 10 of us. That's a roughly 30% chance of going to 2/6 assuming we pick randomly, in which case the expected value is around 2.7/5.3, which is a little worse than 3/6, but that's not the point, because of two reasons.
A.) We're not picking randomly.
B.) Considering what is on the table, we are unlikely to have any rolecop type roles out there. (If we do, then the bus driver can protect them by swapping them with an undisclosed individual so they can feel safe to claim because they only need to follow my orders tonight anyway, doesn't matter if they last one more night thereafter.) Therefore a 3/6 will have equivalent information to a 3/7, so there's quite literally no reason not to execute.
Put these together and the expected value calculations are meaningless because we have no rolecop types. There is no choice BUT to execute, unless a rolecop would like to step forwards and submit to my plan.
Anyway we now better understand how the situations will interact.
In fact, ideally everyone will roleclaim right now and we can easily win right away, because I think it'll be pretty obvious who's lying. You can trust me I'm very trustworthy and you should do what I say.
Oh and once lav tells us how their role works we need to figure out how to optimize that.
Either way, not executing puts us in an objectively worse situation than executing. The probabilities add up very clearly.
Either we take someone out, or we miss. In which case we're 3/5 or 2/6 the next day. Or we do nothing and we're 3/6 next day and likely have no new information, which translates to 3/5 the next night assuming this holds. No one even has the barest hint of an investigatory role, so we'll have no information by my guess. There's 10 of us. That's a roughly 30% chance of going to 2/6 assuming we pick randomly, in which case the expected value is around 2.7/5.3, which is a little worse than 3/6, but that's not the point, because of two reasons.
A.) We're not picking randomly.
B.) Considering what is on the table, we are unlikely to have any rolecop type roles out there. (If we do, then the bus driver can protect them by swapping them with an undisclosed individual so they can feel safe to claim because they only need to follow my orders tonight anyway, doesn't matter if they last one more night thereafter.) Therefore a 3/6 will have equivalent information to a 3/7, so there's quite literally no reason not to execute.
Put these together and the expected value calculations are meaningless because we have no rolecop types. There is no choice BUT to execute, unless a rolecop would like to step forwards and submit to my plan.
I am the They who says it!