05-18-2023, 20:07:34 PM
I! DON'T! START! FIRES!
...
Avril takes a moment to calm down after the prospect of an accusation of firestarting happens.
Now that we've... that we've got that settled... I would think you'd be happy that... happy that I'm no longer going after you, smallonewhosnameiforgotimsorry. Autumn has been... been been trying. To get at me. You see it. Before, and also now, through... through kirby and... and the other one.
Avril seems like it's about to stop talking for a moment, before it twitches like it thought of something.
Also... also... let's do numbers. I'm good... I'm good... I'm good with numbers. There were... there were... twelve of us. Three of them... three of them... were killers. One of the... one of the killers. Is dead. Not two of them. Let's do... some... wordwordwordword... probability... math... STATISTICS. Statistics. Let's do some statistics.
If there are twelve people... and two of them are bonded... and three of them are killers... the chances of both being killers given that bonded exist is... is very low. 1/6 of the players are bonded, and 1/4 of them are killers. That means a full overlap will happen... will happen... 1/24th of the time. So there's a 1/24 chance of both... both me and kirby being killers. The chance for a single overlap is 1/12. Out of every twelve times we were... we were given roles, GIVEN THAT THE BONDED EXIST, you'd expect... you'd expect one twelfth of those times... being the time that we are tragic-bonded. So, there's... there's a 3/24... 1/7th chance of either or both of us being a killer. It's... not much. So... so... there's... there's a 6/7 chance you'd kill two innocents. Except it's... except it's worse than that.
Avril pauses for effect, or possibly to do more math.
But that's... that's without the knowledge that one of the killers was part of a bond. So actually, 1/6 of the players are killers who could possibly be bonded, and 1/6 of the players are definitely bonded. So it's... it's 1/36 that both of us... both of us are killers, and 1/18 that one of us is. So... actually... it's... it's... 1/12th chance of either or both of us being killers... So... so you shouldn't. That's... that's 11/12 times you'd kill two non-killers.
...
Avril takes a moment to calm down after the prospect of an accusation of firestarting happens.
Now that we've... that we've got that settled... I would think you'd be happy that... happy that I'm no longer going after you, smallonewhosnameiforgotimsorry. Autumn has been... been been trying. To get at me. You see it. Before, and also now, through... through kirby and... and the other one.
Avril seems like it's about to stop talking for a moment, before it twitches like it thought of something.
Also... also... let's do numbers. I'm good... I'm good... I'm good with numbers. There were... there were... twelve of us. Three of them... three of them... were killers. One of the... one of the killers. Is dead. Not two of them. Let's do... some... wordwordwordword... probability... math... STATISTICS. Statistics. Let's do some statistics.
If there are twelve people... and two of them are bonded... and three of them are killers... the chances of both being killers given that bonded exist is... is very low. 1/6 of the players are bonded, and 1/4 of them are killers. That means a full overlap will happen... will happen... 1/24th of the time. So there's a 1/24 chance of both... both me and kirby being killers. The chance for a single overlap is 1/12. Out of every twelve times we were... we were given roles, GIVEN THAT THE BONDED EXIST, you'd expect... you'd expect one twelfth of those times... being the time that we are tragic-bonded. So, there's... there's a 3/24... 1/7th chance of either or both of us being a killer. It's... not much. So... so... there's... there's a 6/7 chance you'd kill two innocents. Except it's... except it's worse than that.
Avril pauses for effect, or possibly to do more math.
But that's... that's without the knowledge that one of the killers was part of a bond. So actually, 1/6 of the players are killers who could possibly be bonded, and 1/6 of the players are definitely bonded. So it's... it's 1/36 that both of us... both of us are killers, and 1/18 that one of us is. So... actually... it's... it's... 1/12th chance of either or both of us being killers... So... so you shouldn't. That's... that's 11/12 times you'd kill two non-killers.
I am the They who says it!