[Mafia] Close Circle 2

[Risdio51]

"Something's telling Mr Roboto is innocent. I got a gut feeling about him. I'll hold off on voting for now."

[Dookie]

"Yeah...Lindsey's dedication to getting Spamton killed is getting me suspicious of them. Between the cookie, the robot, and the woman, we probably have a murderer, but which one is it?"

[Kennifer]

"See that's the thing, I dunno. Either Lindsey here is really good at this social deduction thing and I'm just easily confused, which is possible, I ain't that book smart... or they're insisting on Spamton to try to deflect blame and are... maybe not as good at that. Or it's the cookie, obvious solution is obvious, and we're all goin' in circles like a bunch of dumbasses. Or hell, everybody's wrong and none of 'em did anything other than throw blame around."

[PopcornPie]

"Well, the lass did say she would be pushing for a dead cookie if she were guilty. On the other hand, she's really pushin' for Spamton to die instead. She would also be strong enough to swing a bat." Regardless, the Paw O' Death was slowly deployed. "Come on, guys. Maybe the cause of the fire is a clue, too.

[Florien]

Who the fuck is this woman you're talking about? I'm no such thing. I would have thought I made it clear. Wait, did it...

Lindsey rummages around in their coat for a bit, pulls out a pin which says "They/Them" and sticks it on with their wide array of pride pins.

There. Now you can't possibly fuck it up. Again. The point is, I don't see in what universe I wouldn't be pushing for the execution of the obvious suspect if I was the killer. Do I have to get out the ACTUAL STATISTICS NUMBERS here? Because if I do, I expect you to not decide the numbers aren't good enough. Like it or not, this isn't a game of people, this is a game of numbers. We are all numbers, and the numbers right now are seven to two. In the horrifically implausible and utterly unlikely worst case involving both Spamton and the cookie being innocent, which I assure you, one of them absolutely did it, we get two to five, in which case you're obviously going to pick me next, which won't end well for us. In the best case, Spamton did it. 7-1, we win. We also are pretty much guaranteed to win at 6-1.

So here's the question. Do you want the actual math or not? Because I can give you the actual math.

[Kennifer]

"God this fuckin bullshit is giving me more of a headache. Forget the fuckin math, go over once again, in every single detail you got besides the salesman thing and the small thing or whatever, what your reasoning is that it's so obviously Spamton. 'Cause it looks like most of us just aren't getting your reasoning here. And could you try to talk to us like you're not some big superior intellect either, cause gotta say that ego? Ain't winning any points in the tolerating you department right now."

[Florien]

Yeah, yeah, whatever. I don't see why I need to repeat myself to you, but my argument does come down to numbers, and you're going to have to deal with that.

Though it is questionable that you're telling me to "say the argument again without many key parts of the argument". It's like you're trying to get me to generate a strawman for you to characterize my argument as. So I'll ignore that point and present the full argument, plus some details added by recent revelations. But you're just going to ignore it, I'm sure. Anyway, here we go.

Point one. We know that the killer wore medium shoes to do the work.

Point two. The killer bashed in the victim's head with a bat. Presumably. We don't actually know that for sure, but everyone's guessing that, so we'll pretend that's true and confirmed for now.

Point three. The killer then went all around in those shoes, to every house, before abandoning the shoes and going back to join us in the morning.

Point four. Those shoes do not belong to anyone.

Point five. The indication of a medium sized person using these shoes were very deliberately everywhere. (Point three). Therefore, the marks must have been intended to be found. Also, the shoes must have been intended to be found. These are key points.

From this, we can conclude something. The very deliberate placement of marks and the shoes, and crumbs within, make it obvious that the evidence generated was false. It is nakedly an obvious frame-job with no specific target by the cookie. Crepe cookie? something like that. But here we run into a problem.

Why not choose a specific framing target, or multiple specific framing targets? In this case, it's merely clean misdirection with no clear evidence to drag people on the wrong track. This leaves one stand-out conclusion. The specific framing target is the cookie.

Alright, now for some more points.

Point A. Spamton is a salesman. He does not sell anything specific, he's a general salesman. Therefore, it is likely he sells shoes.

Point B. Spamton is small. There is reason to believe that a small person would want to frame the other small person. I will explain my reasoning in the conclusion.

Point C. Get the fuck over my pun. That wasn't the point. I was making a pun in like, the sense that you see on like, CSI. "Tracking cookies" isn't actual evidence, I was making a joke, fucking god.

Point D. The shoes do not come from anyone, so where did they come from?

Point E. Spamton ostensibly has stock, but we've never actually seen his stock. Therefore, he must store it in a void.

The reasoning behind the small person framing the other small person is clear enough. Once the other short one is dead, there will be only one small person left, so anything against them will be immediately dismissed as framing, so now they can wildly frame and always have it assumed that anything indicating them is just an obvious frame attempt. It is like... well, imagine if you had a known shapeshifter here. Obviously, anything could be them, so anything against them will be dismissed. The same is true of anyone with highly unique characteristics in these situations. 

So the conclusion is clear. Spamton got those shoes from his own stock, because the cookie doesn't have shoes. Spamton got crumbs from the cookie, who is one hundred percent certain to shed crumbs, and put them in the shoes. Spamton then went and beat the victim to death, started a fire to cover up any trace evidence from that, which worked wonders, I might add, and then, Spamton made tracks everywhere to look like an utterly transparent vague frame with the only clear lead pointing back to the cookie. Spamton's hope was that the cookie would be executed and found innocent, and then you would assume that "because the cookie was innocent, it must have been a frame attempt by an actual medium sized person who was only framing a small person", thus clearing him of suspicion for another few nights, by which time you'd all be dead.

[Dookie]

Who the fuck is this woman you're talking about? I'm no such thing. I would have thought I made it clear. Wait, did it...

Lindsey rummages around in their coat for a bit, pulls out a pin which says "They/Them" and sticks it on with their wide array of pride pins.

There. Now you can't possibly fuck it up. Again. The point is, I don't see in what universe I wouldn't be pushing for the execution of the obvious suspect if I was the killer. Do I have to get out the ACTUAL STATISTICS NUMBERS here? Because if I do, I expect you to not decide the numbers aren't good enough. Like it or not, this isn't a game of people, this is a game of numbers. We are all numbers, and the numbers right now are seven to two. In the horrifically implausible and utterly unlikely worst case involving both Spamton and the cookie being innocent, which I assure you, one of them absolutely did it, we get two to five, in which case you're obviously going to pick me next, which won't end well for us. In the best case, Spamton did it. 7-1, we win. We also are pretty much guaranteed to win at 6-1.

So here's the question. Do you want the actual math or not? Because I can give you the actual math.

Tom sighs.

"Fine."

"Between the cookie, the robot, and the person, we probably have a murderer, but which one is it?"

[Kennifer]

"The only reason I said not to pull the numbers again was 'cause, believe it or not, I fuckin got that part, okay? Might not have gotten the best grades in bath but I can fuckin subtract and shit. I know numbers are important here, I'm not a god damn moron. The part I didn't get was how it was so obvious to you and apparently mostly just to you so far since nobody's been taking me up on my whole 'if what they're saying is so obvious vote for Spamton right now' thing. And okay. You explained, and you weren't that much of a prick about it so thanks for that. Not saying that means I buy it, 'course. Not sayin' Spamton or the cookie are innocent and you're guilty either so don't even think that, I woulda voted for you already if that was the case. It's just important to get all the facts we got out there, laid out plain in front of everybody, so we can think about how shit lines up."

[Kennifer]

*math, not bath. Fingers why.

[Dookie]

"I agree with Mila. We both failed bath after all."

[Florien]

You may not be saying it, but you were making vague gestures in that direction in a suggestive manner.

"oh what about Lindsey though, oh, what if it was a medium person, Lindsey, you're incoherent and I can't understand your words, Lindsey you're being stupid and somehow calling me stupid even though that hasn't happened and I'm the only one doing any stupid calling, Lindsey sure is acting strange, Lindsey doesn't make any sense, Maybe we shouldn't trust Lindsey or anyone else we shouldn't trust anyone but mostly we shouldn't trust Lindsey."

That is what your words are saying. That is what your actions are saying. You are dancing around this idea that I'm somehow involved, and then because you haven't explicitly endorsed it with a vote, you're insisting that you aren't supporting that idea in any way. It's like... you ever hear the statement "I'm not a racist, but..."? It's like that. You're shooting up huge red flags as to your motivation with your words regarding me and my ideas. Since you are apparently unwilling to not take something as a point to strawman upon, (see the pun) I must add the disclaimer that I am categorically not calling you racist, that is merely an analogy regarding how your frequently brought up and then immediate disavowals of your statements of "everyone is scary and bad and wrong and confusing but especially Lindsey" come off.

It would be like if I said "Oh you're very insistent on defending Spamton specifically, what's up with that? Not accusing you of collaborating with a probable murderer or anything but why are you doing that?" Which, again, I am not doing and I do not think you are. I am merely using this statement to demonstrate what you are doing to those who aren't seeing it.

Lindsey pauses and then waits for a moment, before jumping in one more time.

Anyway, I voted for Spamton, and I highly recommend everyone else follows on. If it isn't Spamton, it's almost certainly the cookie playing a huge mind game with everyone, but I somehow doubt that.

[Kennifer]

"God, way to fucking twist my words, I just wanted clarifying of the evidence because you think you figured everything out, but you were the only one seeing it, and immediately jumping at somebody when nobody else could see why seemed kinda weird. Okay? I don't trust you. I don't trust Spamton, or the cookie, or that weird cryptobro or whatever he is, or the rabbit, or that old guy, or even the guy who won the safe house. Far as I know any two of you could be the yarddogs. You could be right or you could be trying to mislead us, so could anybody."

Mila, in frustration, just... sits down on the curb or the ground or whatever's closest.

[Zanreo]

"HMMM WELL I GUESS YOU HAVE SOME [50 Points], I DO SELL ALL SORTS OF [Random Merch] NOWADAYS... BUT! IT WASN'T ME WHO CAUSED THIS [[Murder Mystery]] YOU CAN TRUST ME ON THIS!"

"...ALSO [Hol up], DON T WE HAVE ANOTHER [Short Person] HERE? OR RATHER... SHORT RABBIT." he says as he looks towards Lucky. "THAT'S NOT TO SAY I'M DEFINITELY ACCUSING LUCKY THOUGH! WHILE IT COULD BE [POSIBILITY] IN FACT I HAVE ANOTHER [Stronger Suspicon]... POSSIBLY TRYING TO TURN THIS AGAINST TWO INNOCENTS, KILLING ONE NOW AND THEN POSSIBLY THE OTHER NEXT DAY. IN FACT MIGHT AS WELL MAKE IT [Offical]...

/vote Lindsey

"EVEN IF YOU MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN THE ONE BEHIND THIS [Specific Kill] YOU COULD STILL BE ON THEIR SIDE..."

[Florien]

Okay, like, if that's not a condemnation of Spamton, I don't know what is.

The obvious target would be the cookie, if Spamton actually cared but didn't want to die, but now I'm being targeted, as the one who figured out the whole thing. I'm the threat, and this is clearly an attempt to eliminate me as having seen right through a ruse.

It's either that or Spamton's just unhelpful. In which case, no great loss.

[Mr. Lee Hammer]

VOTE TALLY

Spamton (1) (Lindsey)
Lindsey (1) (Spamton)

5 to Hammer

Reina's $250 is on the line

[Dookie]

"So. If I'm being honest,"

He turns to Lindsey.

"You're annoying, and I hate you. But I don't think you did it. Why would you double down on something that can easily be proven with just a vote? You could just be waiting for us to go on a goose chase to kill two innocents before we get to you, but that requires overplanning skills that you probably have, but I don't want to believe you have."

"The evidence points to either Strawberry, but Spamton's the one that's been mostly acting suspicious. We don't have any reason to suspect Spamton other than our own inferences, or the fact that he's been acting suspicious, but Strawberry could've easily had their evidence planted."

[Caret]

"Let me guess. Obviously, you <Two> are <You're Digging Too Deep> into this!!!! How about we go the <Obvious? I Know You Would Catch On> path and vote <Cool '20s Gacha Characters>!!!"

/vote Strawberry Crepe Cookie

[Dookie]

"But just because I don't think it's you doesn't mean you don't have any suspicions towards yourself. For one, your original accusation to Spamton has no evidence besides what you think. And you immediately being sure that it was him is a bit suspicious. We don't know if Medium Sized is fake or not, and you were jumping in on it like it was certain that it was fake."

"...This isn't as easy as I thought it would be.

[Mr. Lee Hammer]

VOTE TALLY

Spamton (1) (Lindsey)
Lindsey (1) (Spamton)
Strawberry (1) (Steve)

5 to Hammer

Reina's $250 is on the line

[Florien]

Okay, but we absolutely know the medium sized thing is fake. It was so blatantly paraded around it would have to be fake. It's one or the other. It's not the rabbit because he wouldn't be able to use the shoes at all. And you don't get to be a dick to me because I'm laying out the facts. I think it's pretty obvious that it's one or the other... wait.

Okay so Steve is... likely innocent. He's not following Spamton's spurious and obviously highly suspicious vote on me.

Anyway, I brought forth a hell of a lot of evidence, and you're just ignoring it because it's convenient to you to not like me for... apparently no reason whatsoever. It has to be one or the other, and it's more likely to be Spamton than the Crepe. Your strange apparent belief that circumstantial evidence isn't evidence is informed by shitty courtroom dramas with no basis in legality or reality. Circumstantial evidence is one of the key forms of evidence, and many a person has been rightfully convicted on circumstantial evidence alone.

[Dookie]

Anyway, I brought forth a hell of a lot of evidence, and you're just ignoring it because it's convenient to you to not like me for... apparently no reason whatsoever. It has to be one or the other, and it's more likely to be Spamton than the Crepe. Your strange apparent belief that circumstantial evidence isn't evidence is informed by shitty courtroom dramas with no basis in legality or reality. Circumstantial evidence is one of the key forms of evidence, and many a person has been rightfully convicted on circumstantial evidence alone.

"Oh please. You're too smart to just say I don't like you for no reason. You're so arrogantly defensive that you outright say we're being biased by not believing everything you say as fact, so close minded to think that we wouldn't question you on anything you say, and make fun of us when we do, and so stuffy that you think us not liking you is preposterous."

"Do I think it's you? No. I've already stated that. You jumped on Spamton rather quickly, but we all can look suspicious at times, and you found out a lot about the case. You just aren't easy to get along with, and yes, that can get in the way of our accusations at times."

[Florien]

No. It is for no reason. I'm not saying you're biased. I haven't accused you of anything in particular at all. I'm not arrogantly defensive. I've laid out very clearly the reasons that it's one or the other, and I'm recommending we kill both in order of likelihood to be safe. If we eliminate Spamton and he's guilty, we can all go home happy. If he's innocent, which I don't think he is but it's possible, we eliminate the cookie, and that one will flip guilty.

I'm saying not that you're biased, but that you aren't making rational decisions because you're thinking about the people rather than the numbers. Don't think about the people. We hadn't met before we arrived here, and we won't meet again after we leave here. Thus, the other people here DO NOT MATTER in any form, and you should always make the rational decision, the decision based on numbers and facts about how numbers work.

Also you're misusing "close minded" and "stuffy", but that's quite beside the point. You're the ones attacking me, I haven't directly attacked you. Yet you're the victims here, and not the one beaten to death in her own bed?... but I'll make it easy for you and attack you, since apparently you think I already am doing that.

You're a dick, Tom. You barely contribute, then you walk in and decide you hate me despite contributing nothing and apparently not listening to anything I say, apparently because you don't like that I bring up a numbers argument and tuned out everything else. Mila does the tuning me out after I say numbers too, but at the very least she's going to be proven wrong when one of either Spamton or the cookie turns up traitor. You, on the other hand, are just a dick. You've contributed nothing but insults against me, then couch it in vague extra words to make it sound like you're being fair or helpful. You're a dick, and your shirt looks stupid, and your hair looks like it's made of solidified mud. And if people aren't going to take me seriously, they shouldn't consider you a viable alternative. More to the point, you're not offering an alternative suspect. You just want to get the right one the first time, and because it's ME who decided which we're executing first out of the two actual suspects, you're totally against it. You are fundamentally a bad person.

[PopcornPie]

"HMMM WELL I GUESS YOU HAVE SOME [50 Points], I DO SELL ALL SORTS OF [Random Merch] NOWADAYS... BUT! IT WASN'T ME WHO CAUSED THIS [[Murder Mystery]] YOU CAN TRUST ME ON THIS!"

"...ALSO [Hol up], DON T WE HAVE ANOTHER [Short Person] HERE? OR RATHER... SHORT RABBIT." he says as he looks towards Lucky. "THAT'S NOT TO SAY I'M DEFINITELY ACCUSING LUCKY THOUGH! WHILE IT COULD BE [POSIBILITY] IN FACT I HAVE ANOTHER [Stronger Suspicon]... POSSIBLY TRYING TO TURN THIS AGAINST TWO INNOCENTS, KILLING ONE NOW AND THEN POSSIBLY THE OTHER NEXT DAY. IN FACT MIGHT AS WELL MAKE IT [Offical]...

/vote Lindsey

"EVEN IF YOU MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN THE ONE BEHIND THIS [Specific Kill] YOU COULD STILL BE ON THEIR SIDE..."

"Now, wait just a damn minute! Lucky turned on his bad heel and briefly winced in pain. "Even if I'm short, haven't you noticed me distinguishin' feature? I ain't got no opposable digits! How could I have had the manual dexterity to hit someone dead with a baseball bat if me paws are just these bandaged, fingerless stumps? The rest of it sounds right, though. What I'm sayin'!"

He quietly watched the argument between Lindsey and everyone else, his weapon aimed straight forward. He didn't have the logical brains to the anything but the executioner, really.

[Kennifer]

"Still never said either or both of 'em were innocent for sure, don't know why you keep insisting on that. Just said I wanted good reasons why you were after Spamton, and that maybe it wasn't them. Maybe it was, maybe it was you, maybe it was somebody else, we'll find out. And I also said I listened to your numbers shit and understood it. Maybe listen to people."